MODEL VERDICT
ASGN Incorporated (ASGN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $20.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $39.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $39.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $35.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $51.07 | +143.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $111.88 | +433.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $62.30 | +197.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $76.76 | +266.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $78.72 | +275.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $44.47 | +112.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $65.32 | +211.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $89.30 | +326.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $61.56 | +193.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $72.17 | +244.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.09 | +253.5% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $16 | $21 | $27 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $16 | $22 | $27 | $33 |
| Base Case (-7.1%) | $10 | $14 | $19 | $24 | $29 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $9 | $14 | $19 | $24 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.38 | 21.70 | 15.58 | 28.50 | 3.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.49 | 15.45 | 12.78 | 20.43 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.36 | 12.09 | 8.55 | 16.28 | 2.52 |
| P/FCF | 15.83 | 11.35 | 7.29 | 41.52 | 11.61 |
| P/FFO | 13.20 | 14.03 | 9.25 | 15.35 | 2.11 |
| P/AFFO | 14.97 | 16.12 | 11.22 | 17.30 | 2.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 2.48 | 1.16 | 3.54 | 0.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 1.05 | 0.53 | 1.65 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASGN's fair value at $74.09 vs the current price of $20.96, implying +253.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.15 (P10) to $84.39 (P90), with a median of $72.49.
ASGN's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -66.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover ASGN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.60 (range: $33.00 — $49.00), implying +79.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 35850.0% to approximately $96. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.