MODEL VERDICT
AerSale Corporation (ASLE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $6.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $6.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $6.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $6.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $21.20 | +209.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $17.38 | +153.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $6.71 | -2.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $8.85 | +29.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $37.97 | +454.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $19.85 | +189.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $6.67 | -2.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $200.23 | +2823.1% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Base Case (-3.0%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.63 | 33.89 | 19.54 | 63.86 | 18.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.70 | 21.17 | 12.51 | 50.17 | 15.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2135.47 | 11.32 | 8.22 | 14878.55 | 5619.17 |
| P/FFO | 30.05 | 15.72 | 9.72 | 124.36 | 41.67 |
| P/TBV | 1.60 | 1.71 | 0.81 | 2.31 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 27.28 | 20.89 | 15.56 | 59.42 | 18.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.43 | 1.49 | 0.74 | 2.05 | 0.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.78 | 1.95 | 0.97 | 2.50 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASLE's fair value at $200.23 vs the current price of $6.85, implying +2823.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $200.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.74 (P10) to $894.79 (P90), with a median of $211.77.
ASLE's current P/E of 38.1x compares to the industry median of 37.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +2.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.6x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover ASLE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $8.00 — $19.00), implying +97.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASLE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12670.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.