MODEL VERDICT
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $70.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $76.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $85.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $86.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $94.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $8.72 | -87.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $0.62 | -99.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.49 | -73.9% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.20 | 4.87 | 0.73 | 11.13 | 4.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.82 | 4.87 | 0.73 | 9.54 | 3.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 228.42 | 159.21 | 18.98 | 737.88 | 266.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASTS's fair value at $18.49 vs the current price of $70.89, implying -73.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
ASTS's current P/E of -52.9x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -352.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover ASTS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $103.65 (range: $45.60 — $137.00), implying +46.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASTS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.