MODEL VERDICT
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $31.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $32.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $28.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $27.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $24.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $1321.75 | +4084.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $1700.34 | +5282.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $833.46 | +2538.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $778.92 | +2365.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $250.24 | +692.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $1386.86 | +4290.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $1384.29 | +4282.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $826.72 | +2517.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $850.02 | +2590.8% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $876 | $952 | $1028 | $1105 | $1181 |
| Conservative (5%) | $893 | $970 | $1048 | $1126 | $1203 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $916 | $996 | $1076 | $1155 | $1235 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $940 | $1022 | $1104 | $1185 | $1267 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.22 | 0.87 | 0.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.46 | 3.03 | 1.70 | 6.39 | 1.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.61 | 1.46 | 1.06 | 2.36 | 0.43 |
| P/FCF | 2.18 | 1.27 | 0.40 | 7.47 | 2.68 |
| P/FFO | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.07 |
| P/TBV | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| P/AFFO | 1.03 | 0.78 | 0.32 | 2.39 | 0.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| Div Yield | 1.19 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 2.24 | 0.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASX's fair value at $850.02 vs the current price of $31.59, implying +2590.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $850.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $701.91 (P10) to $1120.72 (P90), with a median of $910.51.
ASX's current P/E of 54.0x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +19.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
5 analysts cover ASX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASX trades at the 5320th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5670.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.