MODEL VERDICT
ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.39 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.55 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $52.15 | +97.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $44.40 | +68.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $5.51 | -79.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $39.09 | +48.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $5.61 | -78.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $82.06 | +211.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.03 | +89.6% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 81.57 | 80.12 | 21.20 | 128.18 | 39.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.53 | 7.25 | 5.09 | 10.77 | 1.83 |
| P/FCF | 50.39 | 36.71 | 7.92 | 120.24 | 51.62 |
| P/FFO | 5.97 | 5.01 | 2.14 | 11.30 | 3.34 |
| P/TBV | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.47 | 1.37 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 65.90 | 28.88 | 10.56 | 158.26 | 80.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.78 | 0.84 | 0.38 | 1.10 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.35 | 2.02 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATNI's fair value at $50.03 vs the current price of $26.39, implying +89.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.74 (P10) to $66.96 (P90), with a median of $51.78.
ATNI's current P/E of -26.9x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -269.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover ATNI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying -16.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATNI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.