MODEL VERDICT
Shenandoah Telecommunications Company (SHEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $16.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $16.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $16.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $15.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $15.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $4.23 | -74.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.74 | +58.0% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 231.80 | 135.13 | 3.56 | 823.81 | 337.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.53 | 21.19 | 11.23 | 59.95 | 20.60 |
| P/FCF | 11.32 | 13.01 | 0.83 | 20.12 | 9.75 |
| P/FFO | 10.52 | 12.38 | 1.21 | 20.30 | 7.20 |
| P/TBV | 2.45 | 1.92 | 0.66 | 5.43 | 1.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 1.68 | 0.66 | 4.41 | 1.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.70 | 4.51 | 2.06 | 10.08 | 3.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHEN's fair value at $25.74 vs the current price of $16.29, implying +58.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
SHEN's current P/E of -22.9x compares to the industry median of 10.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -325.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 231.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover SHEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.00 (range: $29.00 — $29.00), implying +78.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (3), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SHEN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.