MODEL VERDICT
Astronics Corporation (ATRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $71.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $73.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $76.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $76.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $72.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $107.25 | +50.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $59.91 | -15.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $38.20 | -46.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $48.66 | -31.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $47.04 | -33.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $42.11 | -40.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $116.66 | +63.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $122.60 | +72.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $38.02 | -46.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $46.26 | -35.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.93 | +50.2% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 74× | 81× | 88× (Current) | 95× | 102× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 |
| Conservative (7%) | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $66 | $72 | $78 | $85 | $91 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $68 | $74 | $81 | $87 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 56.26 | 54.99 | 28.23 | 85.56 | 28.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 340.10 | 31.48 | 14.67 | 1590.18 | 698.88 |
| P/FCF | 29.27 | 27.53 | 13.64 | 48.40 | 14.44 |
| P/FFO | 57.21 | 54.48 | 10.66 | 109.22 | 41.88 |
| P/TBV | 17.54 | 3.99 | 3.24 | 95.75 | 34.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.73 | 2.20 | 1.38 | 14.90 | 4.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 0.84 | 0.62 | 2.42 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATRO's fair value at $106.93 vs the current price of $71.21, implying +50.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.52 (P10) to $360.33 (P90), with a median of $140.49.
ATRO's current P/E of 87.9x compares to the industry median of 47.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +86.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover ATRO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $107.00 (range: $107.00 — $107.00), implying +50.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.