MODEL VERDICT
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $92.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $99.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $109.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $104.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $109.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $77.55 | -16.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $77.79 | -16.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $80.72 | -13.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $116.36 | +25.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $97.09 | +4.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $112.50 | +21.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $55.65 | -40.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $99.34 | +7.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $101.15 | +9.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $80.72 | -13.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $114.28 | +23.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.15 | -10.4% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $78 | $89 | $100 | $111 | $122 |
| Conservative (11%) | $81 | $92 | $104 | $115 | $127 |
| Base Case (17.3%) | $85 | $97 | $110 | $122 | $134 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $90 | $102 | $115 | $128 | $141 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.56 | 15.40 | 9.67 | 35.31 | 10.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.13 | 12.03 | 5.73 | 43.58 | 13.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.05 | 7.56 | 4.63 | 9.21 | 1.67 |
| P/FCF | 25.62 | 22.88 | 9.97 | 44.96 | 15.86 |
| P/FFO | 10.90 | 9.39 | 5.66 | 18.61 | 4.97 |
| P/TBV | 2.62 | 2.21 | 1.18 | 4.42 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 1113.50 | 18.06 | 11.24 | 4406.64 | 2195.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.55 | 2.15 | 1.17 | 4.37 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.36 | 2.06 | 1.72 | 4.38 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AU's fair value at $83.15 vs the current price of $92.76, implying -10.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $80.59 (P10) to $109.18 (P90), with a median of $94.50.
AU's current P/E of 17.9x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
14 analysts cover AU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $133.00 (range: $95.00 — $200.00), implying +43.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.6% is 20.3 percentage points above the 6-year average (25.2%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$88. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (25.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 520.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.