MODEL VERDICT
AudioCodes Ltd. (AUDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 31 analyst estimates | $14.93 | +91.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 29 industry peers | $12.41 | +59.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $10.91 | +39.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $17.43 | +123.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 25 industry peers | $14.13 | +81.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 28 industry peers | $21.13 | +170.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $22.03 | +182.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $17.29 | +121.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 22 industry peers | $13.24 | +69.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 28 industry peers | $18.17 | +132.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.77 | +89.3% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Base Case (-17.9%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-24%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.80 | 33.19 | 19.48 | 197.62 | 63.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.09 | 21.87 | 15.69 | 26.63 | 4.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.41 | 19.34 | 13.10 | 26.60 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 36.26 | 27.20 | 11.05 | 85.58 | 23.97 |
| P/FFO | 40.19 | 30.72 | 15.55 | 131.41 | 40.90 |
| P/TBV | 5.27 | 3.86 | 1.89 | 14.30 | 4.41 |
| P/AFFO | 64.64 | 35.63 | 19.40 | 194.31 | 65.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.82 | 3.06 | 1.48 | 8.56 | 2.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.67 | 2.11 | 1.03 | 4.72 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AUDC's fair value at $14.77 vs the current price of $7.80, implying +89.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.73 (P10) to $19.66 (P90), with a median of $16.16.
AUDC's current P/E of 25.2x compares to the industry median of 35.2x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -28.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
8 analysts cover AUDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $14.00 — $24.00), implying +143.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AUDC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.