MODEL VERDICT
Avista Corporation (AVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $40.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $41.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $41.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $41.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $41.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $48.80 | +19.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $91.47 | +124.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $47.07 | +15.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $133.10 | +226.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $87.43 | +114.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $19.69 | -51.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $93.67 | +130.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $48.80 | +19.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.54 | +78.1% | 100% | 96 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 | $52 |
| Base Case (4.6%) | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 | $52 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.10 | 16.19 | 15.96 | 21.13 | 2.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.47 | 20.68 | 8.93 | 31.82 | 7.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.91 | 11.18 | 4.91 | 13.87 | 2.92 |
| P/FFO | 7.22 | 7.73 | 6.26 | 7.94 | 0.80 |
| P/TBV | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.13 | 1.69 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.10 | 1.64 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.49 | 2.37 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVA's fair value at $72.54 vs the current price of $40.72, implying +78.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 96/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.76 (P10) to $80.11 (P90), with a median of $72.77.
AVA's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -16.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
15 analysts cover AVA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $40.67 (range: $39.00 — $42.00), implying -0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (11), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 96/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1160.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.