MODEL VERDICT
Avient Corporation (AVNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $36.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $37.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $37.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $38.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $43.72 | +18.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $24.49 | -33.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $16.08 | -56.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $46.62 | +26.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $19.68 | -46.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $49.59 | +34.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $32.42 | -11.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $36.01 | -2.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $16.08 | -56.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $46.62 | +26.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.04 | -10.1% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (-9.3%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.91 | 27.78 | 20.34 | 50.70 | 11.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.89 | 23.19 | 11.80 | 26.70 | 5.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.03 | 13.19 | 10.54 | 16.28 | 2.16 |
| P/FCF | 24.92 | 23.11 | 10.63 | 46.42 | 13.63 |
| P/FFO | 11.21 | 10.76 | 4.23 | 14.80 | 3.66 |
| P/AFFO | 16.98 | 17.79 | 4.81 | 26.30 | 6.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.63 | 1.20 | 2.88 | 0.66 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 1.55 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVNT's fair value at $33.04 vs the current price of $36.76, implying -10.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.04 (P10) to $40.48 (P90), with a median of $36.19.
AVNT's current P/E of 41.3x compares to the industry median of 18.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +128.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover AVNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.40 (range: $41.00 — $56.00), implying +31.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AVNT trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13000.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.