MODEL VERDICT
Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $25.07 | Pending | -9.1% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $24.62 | Pending | -10.7% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $24.95 | Pending | -19.0% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $25.04 | Pending | -14.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $70.95 | +203.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $4.28 | -81.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $7.06 | -69.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $150.81 | +545.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $104.81 | +348.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $5.91 | -74.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.55 | +112.1% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 196× | 215× | 234× (Current) | 253× | 272× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Conservative (22%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Base Case (33.6%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 146.94 | 21.06 | 3.41 | 726.81 | 266.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.75 | 16.83 | 11.08 | 33.92 | 9.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.60 | 10.24 | 9.60 | 20.34 | 5.17 |
| P/FCF | 104.65 | 20.37 | 8.10 | 369.78 | 176.91 |
| P/FFO | 20.31 | 14.80 | 5.56 | 40.22 | 11.59 |
| P/TBV | 1.66 | 1.83 | 0.96 | 2.72 | 0.61 |
| P/AFFO | 880.28 | 16.95 | 8.82 | 5188.34 | 2110.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.77 | 0.88 | 2.72 | 0.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.32 | 1.25 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVNW's fair value at $49.55 vs the current price of $23.36, implying +112.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.97 (P10) to $74.09 (P90), with a median of $54.76.
AVNW's current P/E of 233.6x compares to the industry median of 42.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +446.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 146.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover AVNW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $34.00 — $38.00), implying +54.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AVNW trades at the 9380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (146.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVNW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4770.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.