MODEL VERDICT
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $168.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $178.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $179.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $176.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $175.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $109.40 | -35.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $114.67 | -31.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $116.80 | -30.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $68.32 | -59.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $121.05 | -28.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $88.62 | -47.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $38.18 | -77.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $37.48 | -77.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $110.39 | -34.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $62.39 | -63.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $131.29 | -22.1% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $147 | $162 | $177 | $191 | $206 |
| Conservative (7%) | $151 | $166 | $181 | $196 | $211 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $156 | $171 | $187 | $202 | $218 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $161 | $177 | $193 | $209 | $225 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.65 | 21.59 | 15.95 | 30.40 | 5.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.17 | 16.39 | 13.22 | 22.38 | 3.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.52 | 16.80 | 12.72 | 23.18 | 3.38 |
| P/FCF | 34.57 | 33.80 | 21.81 | 51.79 | 9.69 |
| P/FFO | 16.05 | 15.90 | 11.23 | 19.76 | 3.29 |
| P/TBV | 408.21 | 62.88 | 32.33 | 1129.41 | 624.77 |
| P/AFFO | 21.54 | 20.56 | 15.26 | 27.58 | 4.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.89 | 8.21 | 5.95 | 12.75 | 2.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.10 | 4.30 | 2.58 | 5.14 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AWI's fair value at $131.29 vs the current price of $168.46, implying -22.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $131.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $114.21 (P10) to $137.60 (P90), with a median of $125.85.
AWI's current P/E of 23.8x compares to the industry median of 16.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +44.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover AWI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $197.50 (range: $195.00 — $200.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AWI trades at the 5880th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AWI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (21.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1000.0% to approximately $185. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.