MODEL VERDICT
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $127.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $132.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $131.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $130.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $137.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $120.84 | -5.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $126.70 | -0.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $114.97 | -9.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $115.50 | -9.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $123.99 | -2.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $86.82 | -31.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $40.32 | -68.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $120.81 | -5.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $139.05 | +9.2% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $106 | $118 | $129 | $141 | $153 |
| Conservative (5%) | $108 | $120 | $132 | $144 | $156 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $111 | $123 | $135 | $148 | $160 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $113 | $126 | $139 | $151 | $164 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.88 | 27.21 | 22.89 | 39.35 | 6.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.48 | 26.02 | 20.35 | 35.57 | 5.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.74 | 17.66 | 14.87 | 24.74 | 3.55 |
| P/FFO | 16.87 | 18.10 | 12.69 | 21.27 | 3.17 |
| P/TBV | 4.09 | 4.24 | 2.63 | 5.71 | 1.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.37 | 3.61 | 2.35 | 4.71 | 0.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.54 | 6.16 | 4.95 | 8.75 | 1.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AWK's fair value at $139.05 vs the current price of $127.38, implying +9.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $139.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.04 (P10) to $150.30 (P90), with a median of $137.42.
AWK's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +5.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover AWK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $134.67 (range: $124.00 — $149.00), implying +5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AWK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4090.0% to approximately $179. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.