MODEL VERDICT
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $402.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $397.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $402.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $402.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $345.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $125.06 | -68.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $6.75 | -98.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $36.41 | -90.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $12.18 | -97.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $5.83 | -98.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $78.95 | -80.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $73.53 | -81.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $36.41 | -90.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $12.04 | -97.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $197.73 | -50.8% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 223× | 244× | 265× (Current) | 286× | 307× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $353 | $386 | $419 | $452 | $485 |
| Conservative (7%) | $361 | $395 | $429 | $463 | $497 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $373 | $408 | $443 | $478 | $513 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $385 | $421 | $457 | $493 | $530 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1135.02 | 123.82 | 81.74 | 4985.03 | 2155.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 531.67 | 122.58 | 63.06 | 2041.48 | 849.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 410.89 | 445.34 | 99.66 | 725.50 | 298.81 |
| P/FCF | 224.26 | 140.85 | 67.14 | 756.42 | 262.83 |
| P/FFO | 270.02 | 194.67 | 67.52 | 704.13 | 241.72 |
| P/TBV | 16.74 | 10.51 | 8.04 | 33.90 | 11.66 |
| P/AFFO | 306.61 | 139.29 | 98.54 | 849.32 | 362.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.13 | 9.92 | 7.75 | 20.06 | 4.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.84 | 12.04 | 8.28 | 22.42 | 5.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXON's fair value at $197.73 vs the current price of $402.31, implying -50.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $197.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.13 (P10) to $957.73 (P90), with a median of $333.92.
AXON's current P/E of 264.7x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +1005.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1135.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover AXON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $726.71 (range: $625.00 — $820.00), implying +80.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AXON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 38280.0% to approximately $1943. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.