MODEL VERDICT
AMREP Corporation (AXR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $23.59 | +13.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $17.29 | -16.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $20.83 | +0.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $32.11 | +54.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $39.84 | +92.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $45.48 | +119.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.62 | +4.2% | 100% | 79 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $18 | $23 | $28 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $18 | $23 | $29 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $19 | $24 | $30 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.47 | 11.12 | 2.81 | 31.32 | 10.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.75 | 7.09 | 4.49 | 11.55 | 3.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.32 | 1.86 | 1.01 | 11.33 | 4.54 |
| P/FCF | 28.36 | 11.45 | 5.27 | 82.52 | 31.46 |
| P/FFO | 5.85 | 2.75 | 1.07 | 17.18 | 6.48 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.02 | 0.67 | 1.60 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 6.12 | 2.75 | 1.08 | 18.41 | 6.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 1.57 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.38 | 2.29 | 1.26 | 3.76 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXR's fair value at $21.62 vs the current price of $20.75, implying +4.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.67 (P10) to $27.35 (P90), with a median of $19.22.
AXR's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 8.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -0.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for AXR.
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AXR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.