MODEL VERDICT
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $100.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $102.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $100.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $98.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $129.95 | +29.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $122.86 | +22.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $140.99 | +40.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $85.21 | -14.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $129.95 | +29.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $112.87 | +12.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $130.63 | +30.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $139.84 | +39.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $123.10 | +22.9% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $51 | $77 | $103 | $128 | $154 |
| Conservative (7%) | $53 | $79 | $105 | $132 | $158 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $54 | $82 | $109 | $136 | $163 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $56 | $84 | $112 | $140 | $168 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.23 | 11.22 | 7.18 | 24.08 | 6.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.65 | 9.39 | 6.41 | 17.58 | 4.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.55 | 9.28 | 6.48 | 17.29 | 4.37 |
| P/FCF | 11.74 | 5.70 | 3.79 | 36.95 | 12.96 |
| P/FFO | 10.07 | 9.25 | 6.64 | 15.93 | 3.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.85 | 1.59 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 12.19 | 11.67 | 7.18 | 18.23 | 5.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.80 | 1.34 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.29 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXS's fair value at $123.10 vs the current price of $100.13, implying +22.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $123.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $107.47 (P10) to $139.66 (P90), with a median of $123.55.
AXS's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -22.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
29 analysts cover AXS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $123.88 (range: $110.00 — $140.00), implying +23.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.2% is 8.2 percentage points above the 6-year average (7.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$80. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AXS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2000.0% to approximately $80. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.