MODEL VERDICT
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $47.28 | +70.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $47.03 | +69.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $33.81 | +21.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $50.04 | +80.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $46.52 | +67.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $45.66 | +64.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $88.63 | +219.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $39.37 | +42.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $44.89 | +61.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $33.70 | +21.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $49.92 | +80.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.08 | +77.0% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 |
| Conservative (18%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 |
| Base Case (27.3%) | $27 | $31 | $35 | $40 | $44 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $29 | $33 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.73 | 28.68 | 18.57 | 54.90 | 12.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.89 | 20.46 | 13.26 | 34.44 | 6.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.14 | 12.09 | 9.46 | 14.97 | 1.83 |
| P/FCF | 19.79 | 17.23 | 15.48 | 39.62 | 8.79 |
| P/FFO | 12.48 | 11.91 | 10.42 | 15.25 | 1.70 |
| P/AFFO | 16.30 | 16.45 | 14.20 | 18.73 | 1.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.21 | 4.25 | 2.93 | 5.09 | 0.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.51 | 1.45 | 1.16 | 1.80 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXTA's fair value at $49.08 vs the current price of $27.73, implying +77.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.14 (P10) to $50.99 (P90), with a median of $45.06.
AXTA's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -18.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover AXTA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $34.86 (range: $30.00 — $39.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.2% is 3.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.8%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$78. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AXTA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17950.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.