MODEL VERDICT
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $289.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $289.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $292.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $278.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $278.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $504.74 | +74.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $439.12 | +51.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $436.84 | +51.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $511.83 | +76.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $421.96 | +45.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $523.89 | +81.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $388.74 | +34.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $549.87 | +90.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $504.00 | +74.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $436.15 | +50.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $510.18 | +76.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $415.70 | +43.7% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $252 | $279 | $305 | $332 | $358 |
| Conservative (10%) | $261 | $289 | $316 | $343 | $371 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $274 | $302 | $331 | $360 | $389 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $286 | $316 | $346 | $376 | $406 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.81 | 19.31 | 14.95 | 28.73 | 4.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.27 | 13.69 | 11.71 | 22.93 | 4.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.47 | 11.97 | 9.78 | 16.48 | 2.61 |
| P/FCF | 16.75 | 16.55 | 10.66 | 22.08 | 4.84 |
| P/FFO | 16.04 | 15.00 | 11.98 | 21.51 | 3.51 |
| P/TBV | 25.05 | 15.10 | 10.86 | 87.36 | 27.76 |
| P/AFFO | 18.44 | 17.69 | 13.59 | 24.70 | 3.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.27 | 2.25 | 4.18 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.90 | 1.67 | 1.43 | 2.62 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AYI's fair value at $415.70 vs the current price of $289.29, implying +43.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $415.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $371.84 (P10) to $478.26 (P90), with a median of $424.29.
AYI's current P/E of 23.1x compares to the industry median of 34.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -33.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover AYI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $392.50 (range: $375.00 — $410.00), implying +35.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AYI trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AYI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2560.0% to approximately $363. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.