MODEL VERDICT
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $3594.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $3577.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $3572.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $3536.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $3430.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3100.98 | -13.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $2430.08 | -32.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $6623.15 | +84.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $2836.02 | -21.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $4053.72 | +12.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $3263.33 | -9.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $4104.13 | +14.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $508.46 | -85.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $803.05 | -77.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $4889.85 | +36.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $2587.32 | -28.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4463.55 | +24.2% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $3225 | $3532 | $3839 | $4147 | $4454 |
| Conservative (10%) | $3339 | $3658 | $3976 | $4294 | $4612 |
| Base Case (15.0%) | $3499 | $3832 | $4165 | $4498 | $4831 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $3660 | $4008 | $4357 | $4706 | $5054 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.38 | 21.04 | 16.48 | 23.41 | 2.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.48 | 18.18 | 14.49 | 19.53 | 1.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.21 | 15.92 | 12.47 | 16.69 | 1.57 |
| P/FCF | 21.87 | 20.14 | 12.62 | 32.67 | 7.12 |
| P/FFO | 16.84 | 17.75 | 13.41 | 18.80 | 1.96 |
| P/AFFO | 23.82 | 23.25 | 17.07 | 32.78 | 4.99 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 | 3.08 | 2.26 | 3.27 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AZO's fair value at $4463.55 vs the current price of $3594.08, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4463.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2726.71 (P10) to $3677.02 (P90), with a median of $3188.23.
AZO's current P/E of 24.8x compares to the industry median of 45.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -45.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
45 analysts cover AZO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4235.71 (range: $3600.00 — $4800.00), implying +17.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (32), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AZO trades at the 6960th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AZO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2660.0% to approximately $4551. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.