MODEL VERDICT
Barrick Mining Corporation (B)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $38.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $41.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $43.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $43.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $43.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $38.14 | -1.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $66.74 | +71.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $60.70 | +56.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $46.76 | +20.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $68.36 | +76.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $46.64 | +20.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $56.90 | +46.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $75.89 | +95.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $72.05 | +85.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $60.70 | +56.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $46.76 | +20.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $80.76 | +108.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $28 | $35 | $41 | $47 | $54 |
| Conservative (12%) | $30 | $36 | $43 | $49 | $56 |
| Base Case (18.8%) | $31 | $38 | $45 | $52 | $59 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $33 | $40 | $48 | $55 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.38 | 12.70 | 0.48 | 25.13 | 9.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 76.45 | 10.37 | 5.63 | 342.42 | 128.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 45.70 | 6.76 | 4.64 | 190.56 | 72.77 |
| P/FCF | 30.93 | 20.61 | 11.77 | 69.04 | 20.71 |
| P/FFO | 62.30 | 10.71 | 6.69 | 262.04 | 98.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 1.12 | 0.90 | 2.27 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 53.18 | 27.26 | 19.55 | 138.64 | 57.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.59 | 1.02 | 0.82 | 28.62 | 12.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.26 | 2.79 | 2.10 | 35.20 | 13.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates B's fair value at $80.76 vs the current price of $38.82, implying +108.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $80.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.73 (P10) to $148.24 (P90), with a median of $92.17.
B's current P/E of 13.2x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -36.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover B with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.83 (range: $42.00 — $63.00), implying +38.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 29.4% is 18.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (29.2%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$33. (2) Multiple compression: B trades at the 1480th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that B's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1480.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.