MODEL VERDICT
Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $49.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $53.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $52.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $55.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $55.85 | Below threshold | +1.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $57.66 | +15.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $65.08 | +30.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $56.96 | +14.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $41.67 | -16.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $57.66 | +15.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $45.78 | -8.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.48 | +5.3% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $36 | $45 | $53 | $61 | $69 |
| Conservative (10%) | $38 | $46 | $55 | $63 | $71 |
| Base Case (15.4%) | $40 | $48 | $57 | $66 | $75 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $41 | $51 | $60 | $69 | $78 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.98 | 12.81 | 10.38 | 16.21 | 2.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.20 | 17.49 | 15.35 | 24.16 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.05 | 16.13 | 14.54 | 22.47 | 2.68 |
| P/FCF | 12.84 | 6.53 | 5.38 | 32.91 | 13.40 |
| P/FFO | 11.35 | 11.41 | 9.17 | 13.51 | 1.59 |
| P/TBV | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.22 | 1.89 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.41 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.54 | 2.35 | 1.58 | 4.06 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BAC's fair value at $52.48 vs the current price of $49.83, implying +5.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.87 (P10) to $57.18 (P90), with a median of $53.48.
BAC's current P/E of 13.0x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -13.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
53 analysts cover BAC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.33 (range: $50.00 — $71.00), implying +21.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (34), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BAC trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2130.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.