MODEL VERDICT
Bally's Corporation (BALY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $12.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $11.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $11.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $10.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $41.20 | +211.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $76.52 | +477.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $559.49 | +4125.8% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 157.88 | 35.13 | 10.09 | 720.22 | 279.35 |
| P/FFO | 31.75 | 29.83 | 4.57 | 62.80 | 28.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.86 | 2.98 | 1.17 | 28.06 | 10.52 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 0.96 | 0.30 | 4.22 | 1.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BALY's fair value at $559.49 vs the current price of $13.24, implying +4125.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $559.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.21 (P10) to $1044.89 (P90), with a median of $315.68.
BALY's current P/E of -1.1x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -105.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover BALY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.33 (range: $11.00 — $20.00), implying +23.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BALY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.