MODEL VERDICT
Battalion Oil Corporation (BATL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $18.71 | CURRENT | -82.9% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $22.36 | Below threshold | -81.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 45 analyst estimates | $3.51 | -81.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $2.29 | -87.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 52 industry peers | $20.57 | +9.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 52 industry peers | $21.85 | +16.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.19 | -72.3% | 100% | 47 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 2.98 | 2.99 | 1.69 | 4.24 | 1.33 |
| P/FFO | 3.97 | 2.61 | 1.35 | 9.32 | 3.63 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 2.50 | 0.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.25 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 2.50 | 0.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.15 | 0.91 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates BATL's fair value at $5.19 vs the current price of $18.71, implying -72.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.46 (P10) to $6.59 (P90), with a median of $4.91.
BATL's current P/E of -4.8x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -131.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover BATL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BATL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.