MODEL VERDICT
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $4.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $3.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $3.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $3.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $3.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $0.09 | -97.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $0.06 | -98.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.31 | -92.5% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 33.02 | 4.16 | 0.56 | 151.76 | 66.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBAI's fair value at $0.31 vs the current price of $4.14, implying -92.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
BBAI's current P/E of -5.0x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -131.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover BBAI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +44.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BBAI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.