MODEL VERDICT
Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $31.22 | +713.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $21.19 | +451.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $17.23 | +348.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $39.29 | +923.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $31.22 | +713.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $23.99 | +524.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.43 | +406.1% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $16 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
| Conservative (6%) | $12 | $17 | $21 | $26 | $31 |
| Base Case (8.6%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $13 | $18 | $23 | $28 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.06 | 1.58 | 1.17 | 3.18 | 0.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.36 | 20.49 | 9.12 | 50.15 | 14.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.60 | 13.17 | 6.24 | 22.91 | 6.16 |
| P/FFO | 1.57 | 1.26 | 0.85 | 2.67 | 0.65 |
| P/TBV | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.59 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 1.93 | 1.76 | 0.93 | 3.33 | 0.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBD's fair value at $19.43 vs the current price of $3.84, implying +406.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.10 (P10) to $21.22 (P90), with a median of $18.41.
BBD's current P/E of 8.5x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -38.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover BBD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.20 (range: $3.20 — $3.20), implying -16.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 26.6% is 13.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.7%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$2. (2) Multiple compression: BBD trades at the 500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4240.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.