MODEL VERDICT
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $60.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $60.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $65.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $63.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $134.03 | +123.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $116.39 | +93.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $173.65 | +189.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $122.86 | +104.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $117.00 | +94.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $146.42 | +143.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $293.34 | +388.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $190.29 | +216.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $173.65 | +189.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $134.95 | +124.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $134.88 | +124.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $41 | $51 | $62 | $72 | $82 |
| Conservative (5%) | $42 | $53 | $64 | $74 | $85 |
| Base Case (-5.9%) | $38 | $47 | $57 | $66 | $76 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $37 | $46 | $56 | $65 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.64 | 14.85 | 8.15 | 17.35 | 3.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.11 | 10.85 | 6.89 | 13.86 | 2.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.51 | 7.29 | 5.43 | 10.11 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 13.86 | 10.41 | 6.34 | 27.77 | 7.60 |
| P/FFO | 8.36 | 8.09 | 6.02 | 11.37 | 1.88 |
| P/TBV | 10.67 | 12.16 | 4.71 | 14.69 | 3.77 |
| P/AFFO | 12.64 | 13.34 | 7.73 | 16.62 | 2.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.92 | 6.14 | 3.65 | 7.69 | 1.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.61 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBY's fair value at $134.88 vs the current price of $60.05, implying +124.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $134.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $106.41 (P10) to $143.35 (P90), with a median of $124.62.
BBY's current P/E of 11.9x compares to the industry median of 34.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -65.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover BBY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $74.50 (range: $65.00 — $96.00), implying +24.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (21), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9280.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.