MODEL VERDICT
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $61.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $64.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $65.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $68.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $70.61 | Pending | -5.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $133.44 | +115.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $101.46 | +63.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $125.36 | +102.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $149.14 | +140.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $128.79 | +107.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $146.57 | +136.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $309.80 | +399.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $266.00 | +329.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $125.36 | +102.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $155.04 | +150.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $148.42 | +139.5% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $44 | $52 | $61 | $70 | $79 |
| Conservative (5%) | $45 | $54 | $63 | $72 | $81 |
| Base Case (-5.7%) | $40 | $48 | $57 | $65 | $73 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $40 | $47 | $55 | $63 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.35 | 15.11 | 8.15 | 17.35 | 3.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.37 | 12.30 | 6.89 | 13.86 | 2.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.82 | 7.81 | 5.43 | 10.11 | 1.57 |
| P/FCF | 14.64 | 14.68 | 6.34 | 27.77 | 7.43 |
| P/FFO | 8.98 | 8.66 | 6.02 | 11.37 | 1.96 |
| P/TBV | 11.72 | 12.16 | 8.01 | 14.69 | 2.71 |
| P/AFFO | 13.61 | 13.69 | 7.73 | 17.46 | 3.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.46 | 6.32 | 5.16 | 7.69 | 0.89 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.61 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBY's fair value at $148.42 vs the current price of $61.97, implying +139.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $148.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.18 (P10) to $145.01 (P90), with a median of $124.29.
BBY's current P/E of 14.5x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -50.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
40 analysts cover BBY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $78.50 (range: $70.00 — $96.00), implying +26.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (20), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BBY trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18790.0% to approximately $178. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.