MODEL VERDICT
Boise Cascade Company (BCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $78.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $84.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $83.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $78.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $80.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $106.26 | +36.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $151.17 | +93.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $114.23 | +46.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $12.21 | -84.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $110.85 | +41.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $12.77 | -83.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $487.03 | +523.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $430.36 | +450.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $111.52 | +42.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $11.22 | -85.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $115.89 | +48.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (-4.5%) | $61 | $67 | $74 | $81 | $87 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $59 | $66 | $73 | $79 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.38 | 10.77 | 3.19 | 20.91 | 6.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.69 | 7.07 | 1.93 | 14.69 | 4.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.43 | 6.24 | 1.79 | 8.12 | 2.52 |
| P/FCF | 38.98 | 8.80 | 2.95 | 213.98 | 77.42 |
| P/FFO | 6.90 | 8.34 | 2.84 | 8.95 | 2.63 |
| P/TBV | 2.17 | 2.30 | 1.31 | 2.81 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 15.29 | 12.79 | 3.22 | 43.48 | 13.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 2.35 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCC's fair value at $115.89 vs the current price of $78.13, implying +48.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $115.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.21 (P10) to $116.54 (P90), with a median of $98.74.
BCC's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 32.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -31.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover BCC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $103.00 (range: $103.00 — $103.00), implying +31.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BCC trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BCC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8060.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.