MODEL VERDICT
Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $290.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.07 | $231.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.07 | $207.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.07 | $213.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $166.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $55.37 | -80.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $13.71 | -95.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $8.27 | -97.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $7.67 | -97.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $8.62 | -97.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $32.84 | -88.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $38.00 | -86.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $7.00 | -97.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.93 | -90.4% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 175.08 | 152.35 | 7.63 | 365.25 | 179.89 |
| P/TBV | 15.70 | 9.38 | 6.05 | 28.12 | 10.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.70 | 9.38 | 6.05 | 28.12 | 10.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.16 | 3.43 | 1.10 | 10.32 | 2.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates BE's fair value at $27.93 vs the current price of $290.52, implying -90.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.07 (P10) to $56.83 (P90), with a median of $48.79.
BE's current P/E of -785.2x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -2346.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover BE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $187.56 (range: $39.00 — $310.00), implying -35.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (12), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.