MODEL VERDICT
Bel Fuse Inc. (BELFB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $283.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $276.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $254.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $236.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $235.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $228.34 | -19.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $1127.17 | +297.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $144.12 | -49.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $1157.76 | +308.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $1089.92 | +284.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $1088.64 | +283.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $266.18 | -6.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $1351.21 | +376.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $1323.83 | +366.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $170.25 | -40.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $1073.29 | +278.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $612.59 | +116.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $274 | $301 | $327 | $354 | $381 |
| Conservative (25%) | $297 | $326 | $355 | $384 | $413 |
| Base Case (38.6%) | $329 | $361 | $393 | $425 | $458 |
| Bull Case (52%) | $361 | $396 | $431 | $467 | $502 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.69 | 14.03 | 7.35 | 36.48 | 11.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.99 | 9.06 | 4.90 | 19.50 | 5.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.98 | 7.30 | 4.01 | 15.91 | 4.80 |
| P/FCF | 11.87 | 11.91 | 5.19 | 19.67 | 6.27 |
| P/FFO | 12.50 | 7.22 | 4.07 | 37.06 | 11.81 |
| P/TBV | 127.99 | 3.22 | 1.51 | 878.40 | 330.90 |
| P/AFFO | 10.42 | 8.44 | 4.71 | 23.89 | 7.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.58 | 1.70 | 0.69 | 2.50 | 0.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 1.93 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BELFB's fair value at $612.59 vs the current price of $283.60, implying +116.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $612.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $544.76 (P10) to $698.52 (P90), with a median of $619.75.
BELFB's current P/E of 61.0x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +96.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover BELFB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $281.00 (range: $250.00 — $315.00), implying -0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BELFB trades at the 5940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BELFB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8190.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.