MODEL VERDICT
Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $29.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $27.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $27.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $26.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $13.51 | -54.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $62.23 | +108.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $23.32 | -21.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $41.31 | +38.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $12.69 | -57.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $27.42 | -8.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.06 | -6.0% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
| Base Case (-10.6%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.29 | 15.72 | 9.38 | 26.25 | 6.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.81 | 14.02 | 4.73 | 25.00 | 7.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.89 | 12.52 | 5.06 | 22.07 | 6.17 |
| P/FCF | 64.59 | 13.51 | 6.92 | 376.49 | 137.56 |
| P/FFO | 10.39 | 11.01 | 7.67 | 13.25 | 2.06 |
| P/TBV | 4.04 | 4.35 | 1.56 | 6.16 | 1.58 |
| P/AFFO | 11.92 | 12.41 | 7.97 | 14.92 | 2.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.79 | 1.86 | 1.22 | 2.31 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BEN's fair value at $28.06 vs the current price of $29.84, implying -6.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.84 (P10) to $33.60 (P90), with a median of $28.41.
BEN's current P/E of 32.8x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +120.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover BEN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.75 (range: $22.00 — $34.00), implying -3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (15), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BEN trades at the 8560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 900.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.