MODEL VERDICT
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. (BFAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $81.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $81.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $84.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $83.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $80.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $67.77 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.29 | -64.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $56.14 | -31.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $51.17 | -37.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $24.48 | -70.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $29.69 | -63.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $381.35 | +367.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $33.08 | -59.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $73.46 | -9.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $55.86 | -31.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $50.14 | -38.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $113.04 | +38.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $81 | $89 | $97 | $105 | $113 |
| Conservative (32%) | $89 | $98 | $107 | $115 | $124 |
| Base Case (49.5%) | $100 | $111 | $121 | $131 | $141 |
| Bull Case (67%) | $112 | $123 | $135 | $146 | $157 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.60 | 49.28 | 30.18 | 384.42 | 125.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 67.69 | 39.73 | 25.89 | 223.06 | 70.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.81 | 25.71 | 19.96 | 72.10 | 18.39 |
| P/FCF | 40.53 | 33.06 | 22.71 | 83.58 | 20.56 |
| P/FFO | 35.08 | 29.55 | 19.76 | 75.25 | 19.30 |
| P/AFFO | 67.68 | 48.18 | 29.83 | 193.51 | 57.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.87 | 5.07 | 3.42 | 9.12 | 2.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.43 | 2.41 | 1.83 | 6.89 | 1.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BFAM's fair value at $113.04 vs the current price of $81.55, implying +38.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $113.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.29 (P10) to $152.90 (P90), with a median of $107.93.
BFAM's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +45.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover BFAM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $95.57 (range: $70.00 — $112.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BFAM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 44960.0% to approximately $448. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.