MODEL VERDICT
Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $32.29 | Pending | +6.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $64.45 | +89.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $62.60 | +83.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $36.10 | +5.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $39.47 | +15.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $34.13 | +0.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $62.57 | +83.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $93.41 | +174.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.44 | +45.1% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $28 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $42 |
| Conservative (5%) | $29 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $43 |
| Base Case (-6.2%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.02 | 23.80 | 20.99 | 33.77 | 4.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.48 | 20.29 | 19.40 | 22.62 | 1.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.29 | 14.32 | 10.80 | 21.30 | 4.26 |
| P/FCF | 8.42 | 8.02 | 5.50 | 10.60 | 1.91 |
| P/FFO | 9.80 | 9.34 | 6.19 | 13.19 | 2.47 |
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.74 | 0.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.74 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.22 | 3.97 | 3.29 | 5.26 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BFS's fair value at $49.44 vs the current price of $34.08, implying +45.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.17 (P10) to $56.30 (P90), with a median of $48.67.
BFS's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -13.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
7 analysts cover BFS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $43.50 (range: $43.50 — $43.50), implying +27.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4780.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.