MODEL VERDICT
Bunge Global S.A. (BG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $124.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $124.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $119.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $120.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $123.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $105.00 | -15.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $8.20 | -93.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $61.79 | -50.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $292.14 | +134.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $307.87 | +147.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $58.93 | -52.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.27 | -41.2% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $105 | $115 | $125 | $135 | $145 |
| Conservative (5%) | $108 | $119 | $129 | $139 | $150 |
| Base Case (-8.6%) | $94 | $103 | $112 | $121 | $130 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $91 | $100 | $109 | $117 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.92 | 9.00 | 6.79 | 18.14 | 4.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.27 | 7.73 | 5.15 | 17.37 | 4.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.69 | 7.58 | 5.13 | 15.31 | 3.53 |
| P/FFO | 6.96 | 6.55 | 5.65 | 9.73 | 1.55 |
| P/TBV | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.06 | 1.95 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 16.64 | 9.68 | 6.76 | 48.22 | 17.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.31 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 1.73 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BG's fair value at $73.27 vs the current price of $124.61, implying -41.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.35 (P10) to $86.31 (P90), with a median of $73.31.
BG's current P/E of 25.4x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +101.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover BG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $133.67 (range: $117.00 — $150.00), implying +7.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BG trades at the 6000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1740.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.