MODEL VERDICT
Benchmark Electronics, Inc. (BHE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $84.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $69.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $65.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $62.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $63.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $97.00 | +14.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $83.56 | -1.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $39.78 | -52.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $108.65 | +28.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $72.55 | -14.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $105.19 | +24.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $13.47 | -84.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $207.58 | +145.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $210.24 | +148.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $39.78 | -52.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $108.65 | +28.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.81 | -15.0% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 102× | 112× | 122× (Current) | 132× | 142× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $74 | $81 | $88 | $96 | $103 |
| Conservative (8%) | $76 | $84 | $91 | $99 | $106 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 | $110 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $82 | $90 | $99 | $107 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.07 | 27.37 | 13.97 | 71.08 | 23.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.31 | 17.22 | 10.36 | 35.36 | 9.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.11 | 11.04 | 7.55 | 15.59 | 2.94 |
| P/FCF | 14.68 | 12.29 | 10.30 | 21.99 | 5.15 |
| P/FFO | 15.00 | 15.24 | 8.48 | 25.65 | 5.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.19 | 1.90 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 31.66 | 27.43 | 14.51 | 62.59 | 15.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.15 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.50 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BHE's fair value at $71.81 vs the current price of $84.50, implying -15.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.43 (P10) to $89.91 (P90), with a median of $78.54.
BHE's current P/E of 122.5x compares to the industry median of 57.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +112.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover BHE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $86.00 (range: $80.00 — $92.00), implying +1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BHE trades at the 9380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (39.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BHE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5950.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.