MODEL VERDICT
Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $12.46 | +316.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 13 industry peers | $14.51 | +385.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $7.26 | +142.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $11.74 | +292.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $12.36 | +313.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.16 | +206.4% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 18.32 | 19.65 | 10.05 | 23.25 | 4.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.83 | 9.02 | 2.39 | 16.99 | 4.90 |
| P/FCF | 3.78 | 2.99 | 1.95 | 7.01 | 2.01 |
| P/FFO | 2.99 | 2.72 | 0.72 | 5.64 | 1.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 5.39 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 12.23 | 5.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.66 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 0.69 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BHR's fair value at $9.16 vs the current price of $2.99, implying +206.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.84 (P10) to $12.26 (P90), with a median of $8.04.
BHR's current P/E of -3.9x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -116.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover BHR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.83 (range: $3.50 — $17.00), implying +228.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BHR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.