MODEL VERDICT
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $187.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $184.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $177.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $180.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $172.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $224.36 | +19.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $245.27 | +31.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $206.24 | +10.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $278.75 | +49.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $240.67 | +28.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $256.25 | +37.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $357.58 | +91.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $327.91 | +75.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $223.24 | +19.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $277.74 | +48.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $213.34 | +14.1% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $153 | $171 | $189 | $207 | $225 |
| Conservative (5%) | $158 | $176 | $195 | $213 | $232 |
| Base Case (-18.7%) | $122 | $136 | $151 | $165 | $179 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $112 | $125 | $139 | $152 | $165 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.39 | 13.67 | 9.44 | 32.47 | 8.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.29 | 12.00 | 8.12 | 23.36 | 4.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.18 | 10.58 | 7.87 | 16.96 | 3.20 |
| P/FCF | 16.68 | 10.61 | 8.47 | 35.34 | 11.26 |
| P/FFO | 12.93 | 11.34 | 8.75 | 22.75 | 5.27 |
| P/TBV | 39.79 | 13.73 | 6.98 | 173.47 | 60.03 |
| P/AFFO | 14.93 | 12.17 | 9.78 | 28.02 | 6.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.78 | 3.02 | 1.33 | 4.17 | 1.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.26 | 3.27 | 2.31 | 3.97 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BIIB's fair value at $213.34 vs the current price of $187.06, implying +14.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $213.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $194.88 (P10) to $261.67 (P90), with a median of $227.89.
BIIB's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -9.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
48 analysts cover BIIB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $211.42 (range: $143.00 — $260.00), implying +13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BIIB trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BIIB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3200.0% to approximately $247. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.