Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$191.82
→
Intrinsic$229.52
+20%
$149.37$229.52$381.88
Market implies 4% growth for 5 years
BIIB shows 20% potential upside using 8% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $192, the market prices in only 4% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $149 → Bull $382. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $277 | $304 | $334 | $365 |
| 10% | $190 | $209 | $230 | $251 |
| 12% | $142 | $157 | $172 | $188 |
| 14% | $112 | $123 | $135 | $148 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($382) offers 99% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 16% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (4%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($149) implies 22% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.21B
Year 2$2.39B
Year 3$2.58B
Year 4$2.79B
Year 5$3.01B
Terminal$44.34B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.05BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.