MODEL VERDICT
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $39.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $39.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $37.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $38.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $42.87 | +10.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $50.12 | +29.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $45.19 | +16.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $24.22 | -37.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $61.25 | +58.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $20.48 | -47.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $11.17 | -71.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $13.60 | -64.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $51.35 | +32.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $24.26 | -37.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.83 | +36.5% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 | $43 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.42 | 55.55 | 21.87 | 118.85 | 49.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.85 | 28.89 | 16.58 | 38.07 | 10.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.02 | 22.25 | 13.16 | 30.64 | 8.74 |
| P/FCF | 30.41 | 29.96 | 26.46 | 34.81 | 4.19 |
| P/FFO | 36.41 | 36.29 | 16.75 | 56.20 | 19.72 |
| P/AFFO | 75.03 | 46.73 | 20.15 | 158.20 | 73.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.52 | 3.71 | 2.80 | 4.05 | 0.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.17 | 5.89 | 3.64 | 5.97 | 1.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BIRK's fair value at $52.83 vs the current price of $38.71, implying +36.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.88 (P10) to $60.71 (P90), with a median of $50.30.
BIRK's current P/E of 17.6x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -27.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 65.4x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
16 analysts cover BIRK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.54 (range: $47.00 — $65.00), implying +43.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BIRK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (18.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22870.0% to approximately $127. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.