MODEL VERDICT
The Buckle, Inc. (BKE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $55.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $56.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $54.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $52.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $54.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $44.95 | -18.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $50.52 | -8.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $56.90 | +2.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $43.75 | -20.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $60.95 | +10.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $50.74 | -8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $22.19 | -59.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $21.91 | -60.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $16.60 | -70.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $55.90 | +1.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $42.63 | -22.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.47 | -14.1% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $41 | $49 | $57 | $65 | $74 |
| Conservative (8%) | $42 | $51 | $59 | $67 | $76 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $44 | $53 | $61 | $70 | $79 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $46 | $55 | $64 | $73 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.62 | 10.80 | 8.20 | 13.06 | 1.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.45 | 8.44 | 6.33 | 11.23 | 2.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.75 | 7.51 | 6.00 | 9.93 | 1.55 |
| P/FCF | 9.74 | 10.62 | 6.51 | 12.80 | 2.22 |
| P/FFO | 9.28 | 9.48 | 7.64 | 11.75 | 1.52 |
| P/TBV | 4.83 | 5.74 | 2.39 | 6.68 | 1.66 |
| P/AFFO | 10.43 | 9.98 | 8.21 | 14.58 | 2.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.83 | 5.74 | 2.39 | 6.68 | 1.66 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.63 | 1.61 | 1.06 | 2.10 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BKE's fair value at $47.47 vs the current price of $55.27, implying -14.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.19 (P10) to $49.53 (P90), with a median of $45.29.
BKE's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -2.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover BKE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $53.00 — $53.00), implying -4.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (15), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BKE trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BKE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 830.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.