MODEL VERDICT
Baker Hughes Company (BKR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $69.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $68.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $59.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $60.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $62.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $49.76 | -28.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $45.91 | -33.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $68.60 | -0.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $43.73 | -36.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $58.43 | -15.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $45.56 | -34.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $60.47 | -12.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $54.36 | -21.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $71.90 | +4.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $46.19 | -33.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.39 | -38.7% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $62 | $68 | $73 | $78 | $84 |
| Conservative (7%) | $64 | $69 | $75 | $80 | $86 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $66 | $72 | $77 | $83 | $89 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 | $91 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.15 | 17.71 | 13.77 | 111.43 | 47.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.06 | 17.83 | 12.62 | 121.59 | 39.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.54 | 9.68 | 7.08 | 11.29 | 1.33 |
| P/FCF | 19.04 | 18.88 | 10.82 | 27.22 | 6.20 |
| P/FFO | 21.40 | 11.72 | 9.23 | 63.36 | 21.11 |
| P/TBV | 4.37 | 5.12 | 1.69 | 6.60 | 2.17 |
| P/AFFO | 26.86 | 19.21 | 14.47 | 57.47 | 17.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.63 | 2.01 | 0.41 | 2.41 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.16 | 1.36 | 0.60 | 1.63 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates BKR's fair value at $42.39 vs the current price of $69.12, implying -38.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.17 (P10) to $70.47 (P90), with a median of $57.41.
BKR's current P/E of 26.6x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +0.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.2x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
45 analysts cover BKR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $72.00 (range: $60.00 — $80.00), implying +4.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.2% is 18.5 percentage points above the 4-year average (6.7%), with a Z-score of +4.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$63. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BKR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +4.0σ, meaning margins are 4.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 900.0% to approximately $63. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.