MODEL VERDICT
TopBuild Corp. (BLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $438.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $453.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $410.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $387.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $394.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $400.40 | -8.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $267.67 | -39.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $431.67 | -1.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $634.80 | +44.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $395.49 | -9.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $588.54 | +34.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $412.84 | -6.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $642.23 | +46.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $697.06 | +58.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $429.98 | -2.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $638.18 | +45.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $415.49 | -5.3% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $394 | $434 | $473 | $513 | $552 |
| Conservative (13%) | $412 | $454 | $495 | $536 | $577 |
| Base Case (19.7%) | $437 | $481 | $525 | $569 | $612 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $463 | $509 | $556 | $602 | $648 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.75 | 19.36 | 9.13 | 28.21 | 6.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.98 | 14.17 | 8.15 | 23.11 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.10 | 12.46 | 7.08 | 21.48 | 5.04 |
| P/FCF | 16.98 | 15.66 | 12.10 | 26.32 | 4.73 |
| P/FFO | 17.31 | 15.82 | 7.47 | 28.33 | 6.91 |
| P/AFFO | 19.94 | 17.88 | 8.42 | 33.08 | 8.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.26 | 4.54 | 2.63 | 5.59 | 1.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.93 | 2.17 | 1.01 | 2.62 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLD's fair value at $415.49 vs the current price of $438.98, implying -5.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $415.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $382.11 (P10) to $468.38 (P90), with a median of $423.70.
BLD's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +1.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover BLD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $537.80 (range: $448.00 — $620.00), implying +22.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BLD trades at the 1540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 700.0% to approximately $470. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.