MODEL VERDICT
Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $3.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $3.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $2.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $3.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $2.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $3.14 | -7.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $1.11 | -67.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.52 | +3.7% | 100% | 48 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.30 | 1.90 | 0.74 | 8.18 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.94 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 6.68 | 2.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 20.98 | 15.81 | 4.60 | 55.97 | 18.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLDP's fair value at $3.52 vs the current price of $3.39, implying +3.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.00 (P10) to $4.78 (P90), with a median of $3.28.
BLDP's current P/E of -3.1x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -111.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover BLDP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.72 (range: $2.00 — $3.15), implying -19.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (17), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BLDP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.