MODEL VERDICT
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1061.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1044.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1052.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1048.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $999.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $957.21 | -9.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $779.10 | -26.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $60.68 | -94.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $962.12 | -9.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $957.21 | -9.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $716.63 | -32.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $766.64 | -27.8% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $911 | $998 | $1084 | $1171 | $1258 |
| Conservative (5%) | $929 | $1017 | $1106 | $1194 | $1283 |
| Base Case (8.1%) | $954 | $1044 | $1135 | $1226 | $1317 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $979 | $1073 | $1166 | $1259 | $1352 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.95 | 22.23 | 14.83 | 24.40 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.19 | 18.89 | 11.17 | 20.43 | 3.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.38 | 17.97 | 10.99 | 19.36 | 3.07 |
| P/FCF | 29.15 | 30.71 | 22.25 | 33.06 | 4.13 |
| P/FFO | 19.52 | 20.63 | 14.12 | 22.53 | 3.13 |
| P/TBV | 30.80 | 27.78 | 16.40 | 58.36 | 14.21 |
| P/AFFO | 20.65 | 21.91 | 14.78 | 23.66 | 3.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.81 | 2.97 | 1.90 | 3.63 | 0.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.38 | 6.85 | 4.50 | 7.62 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLK's fair value at $766.64 vs the current price of $1061.68, implying -27.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $766.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $800.11 (P10) to $995.31 (P90), with a median of $893.72.
BLK's current P/E of 25.3x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +10.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
33 analysts cover BLK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1311.78 (range: $1200.00 — $1393.00), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 31.2% is 0.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (30.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$858. (2) Multiple compression: BLK trades at the 7220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BLK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1920.0% to approximately $858. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.