MODEL VERDICT
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A. (BLX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $53.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $56.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $54.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $69.39 | +29.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $66.69 | +24.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $0.12 | -99.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $54.07 | +0.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $69.39 | +29.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $0.08 | -99.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.54 | -13.2% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $34 | $48 | $62 | $75 | $89 |
| Conservative (20%) | $37 | $51 | $66 | $81 | $95 |
| Base Case (30.7%) | $40 | $56 | $72 | $88 | $104 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $43 | $61 | $78 | $95 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.92 | 7.30 | 5.44 | 10.25 | 2.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.33 | 27.67 | 17.24 | 50.09 | 12.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.23 | 25.90 | 17.24 | 47.45 | 11.98 |
| P/FCF | 1.94 | 0.85 | 0.50 | 4.47 | 2.19 |
| P/FFO | 7.70 | 7.74 | 5.33 | 9.73 | 1.97 |
| P/TBV | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 0.99 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 7.78 | 7.85 | 5.36 | 9.80 | 2.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 0.99 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.85 | 2.92 | 1.32 | 4.88 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLX's fair value at $46.54 vs the current price of $53.63, implying -13.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.61 (P10) to $51.52 (P90), with a median of $45.39.
BLX's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover BLX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 66.8% is 31.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (35.4%), with a Z-score of +2.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$26. (2) Multiple compression: BLX trades at the 760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (35.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5210.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.