MODEL VERDICT
Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 89 analyst estimates | $0.59 | -85.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 79 industry peers | $4.19 | +1.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 83 industry peers | $4.46 | +8.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 106 industry peers | $10.84 | +162.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 106 industry peers | $10.09 | +144.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 83 industry peers | $4.29 | +3.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.35 | -18.8% | 100% | 57 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 9.73 | 6.58 | 3.74 | 22.01 | 8.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.42 | 4.38 | 2.83 | 6.08 | 1.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.66 | 2.48 | 2.05 | 7.61 | 2.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLZE's fair value at $3.35 vs the current price of $4.13, implying -18.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.81 (P10) to $4.71 (P90), with a median of $3.74.
BLZE's current P/E of -3.7x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -115.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover BLZE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +166.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BLZE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.