...

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$55.07
→
Intrinsic$86.90
+58%
$59.64$86.90$138.62
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BMRN could have 58% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $55, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $60 → Bull $139. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$107$115$124$134
10%$75$81$87$93
12%$58$62$66$71
14%$46$50$53$57

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($139) offers 152% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($60) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$594.28M
Year 2$742.85M
Year 3$928.56M
Year 4$1.16B
Year 5$1.45B
Terminal$21.35B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$475.42MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare BMRN vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BMRN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

BMRN trades at $55.07 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $72.25, implying +20% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of BMRN's future cash flows. The bear case ($47.90) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is BMRN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $475M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-293M net debt and dividing by 0.20B shares: Bear $47.90 | Base $72.25 | Bull $108.10. Current price $55.07 implies +20% to base case.

How is BMRN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($13.92B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.