Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$61.73
→
Intrinsic$114.47
+85%
$79.19$114.47$181.46
Market implies 4% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BMRN could have 85% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $62, the market prices in only 4% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $79 → Bull $181. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $139 | $150 | $162 | $175 |
| 10% | $99 | $106 | $114 | $123 |
| 12% | $76 | $82 | $88 | $95 |
| 14% | $62 | $67 | $72 | $77 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($181) offers 194% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (4%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($79) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$869.95M
Year 2$1.04B
Year 3$1.25B
Year 4$1.50B
Year 5$1.80B
Terminal$26.54B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$724.96MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.