MODEL VERDICT
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $61.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $64.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $58.95 | Pending | -1.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $102.19 | +65.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $72.68 | +17.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $37.89 | -38.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $97.99 | +58.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $95.79 | +55.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $165.55 | +168.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $171.39 | +177.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $42.66 | -30.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $106.54 | +72.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $340.32 | +451.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $51 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Conservative (5%) | $53 | $59 | $64 | $70 | $76 |
| Base Case (-50.1%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Bull Case (-68%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 144.23 | 109.57 | 19.36 | 424.50 | 164.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 79.24 | 92.96 | 22.80 | 121.95 | 50.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 717.11 | 177.57 | 21.76 | 3212.70 | 1244.56 |
| P/FCF | 156.25 | 87.18 | 15.71 | 355.93 | 158.41 |
| P/FFO | 121.56 | 80.30 | 17.52 | 367.50 | 122.21 |
| P/TBV | 4.11 | 4.39 | 2.01 | 6.13 | 1.43 |
| P/AFFO | 756.80 | 112.36 | 20.46 | 3447.02 | 1505.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.55 | 3.79 | 1.87 | 4.85 | 1.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.03 | 8.82 | 4.53 | 9.33 | 1.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates BMRN's fair value at $340.32 vs the current price of $61.73, implying +451.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $340.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $116.57 (P10) to $909.71 (P90), with a median of $372.88.
BMRN's current P/E of 34.3x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +62.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 144.2x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
40 analysts cover BMRN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $82.00 (range: $60.00 — $104.00), implying +32.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BMRN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 35820.0% to approximately $283. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.