MODEL VERDICT
Popular, Inc. (BPOP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $149.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $147.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $146.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $144.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $144.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $174.30 | +16.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $128.94 | -13.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $148.02 | -0.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $96.33 | -35.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $174.30 | +16.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $170.19 | +14.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.08 | -6.2% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $105 | $131 | $157 | $183 | $209 |
| Conservative (10%) | $109 | $136 | $163 | $190 | $217 |
| Base Case (15.9%) | $114 | $143 | $171 | $200 | $228 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $120 | $149 | $179 | $209 | $239 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.84 | 9.59 | 4.53 | 10.99 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.98 | 3.00 | 0.39 | 9.53 | 4.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.87 | 2.78 | 0.37 | 9.53 | 4.09 |
| P/FCF | 9.85 | 9.20 | 5.48 | 14.60 | 3.31 |
| P/FFO | 8.06 | 8.47 | 4.30 | 9.99 | 2.04 |
| P/TBV | 1.33 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 1.60 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 10.25 | 9.47 | 4.72 | 14.92 | 3.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.14 | 0.80 | 1.35 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.88 | 1.90 | 1.54 | 2.53 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BPOP's fair value at $140.08 vs the current price of $149.35, implying -6.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.27 (P10) to $144.71 (P90), with a median of $135.35.
BPOP's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -14.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
20 analysts cover BPOP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $159.33 (range: $152.00 — $170.00), implying +6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BPOP trades at the 3820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BPOP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1090.0% to approximately $133. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.